Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks

All Washington Wizards predictions · All Atlanta Hawks predictions

NBA · Friday, November 6, 2026 · 7:12 PM · Final: 132-139

The model's call
Atlanta Hawks to win
Model confidence 73.2%
Books consensus 73.2%
Result Atlanta Hawks won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Washington WizardsAtlanta Hawks
BetMGM +260 -325
BetRivers +255 -335
DraftKings +250 -309
ESPN BET +250 -300
Fanatics +240 -300
FanDuel +260 -320
Hard Rock Bet +260 -350
Novig +257 -264
Caesars +270 -345

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Hawks −8.5
priced 48.9% to cover · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened Hawks −6.5
Washington Wizards covered +8.5
Total · closing
O/U 228.5
priced 50.2% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
Over 228.5 (271 scored)
Spread by book WizardsHawks
BetMGM +8.5 -115 −8.5 -105
BetRivers +8.5 -113 −8.5 -109
DraftKings +8.5 -113 −8.5 -107
ESPN BET +8.5 -115 −8.5 -105
Fanatics +8 -110 −8 -110
FanDuel +8.5 -115 −8.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet +8.5 -120 −8.5 +100
Caesars +8 -105 −8 -115
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 228.5 -110 228.5 -110
BetRivers 228.5 -115 228.5 -107
DraftKings 227.5 -112 227.5 -108
ESPN BET 229.5 -105 229.5 -115
Fanatics 228 -110 228 -110
FanDuel 228.5 -112 228.5 -108
Hard Rock Bet 227.5 -115 227.5 +100
Caesars 228.5 -110 228.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Washington WizardsAtlanta Hawks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 26.8% 73.2%
Best book price incl. vig 27.0% 72.5%
Kalshi contract price 27.5% 72.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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