Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

New York Rangers at Seattle Kraken

All New York Rangers predictions · All Seattle Kraken predictions

NHL · Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 5:09 PM · Final: 4-3

The model's call
New York Rangers to win
Model confidence 55.3%
Books consensus 55.3%
Result New York Rangers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book New York RangersSeattle Kraken
BetMGM -135 +115
BetRivers -137 +115
DraftKings -135 +114
ESPN BET -135 +115
Fanatics -140 +115
FanDuel -134 +112
Hard Rock Bet -140 +110
Novig -133 +130
Caesars -128 +107

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Rangers −1.5
priced 34.0% to cover · 8 books
Seattle Kraken covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 47.8% over · 8 books
Over 6.5 (7 scored)
Spread by book RangersKraken
BetMGM −1.5 +180 +1.5 -220
BetRivers −1.5 +180 +1.5 -230
DraftKings −1.5 +185 +1.5 -225
ESPN BET −1.5 +180 +1.5 -225
Fanatics −1.5 +175 +1.5 -220
FanDuel −1.5 +176 +1.5 -220
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +180 +1.5 -250
Caesars −1.5 +190 +1.5 -230
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
BetRivers 6.5 +104 6.5 -129
DraftKings 6.5 +102 6.5 -122
ESPN BET 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
Fanatics 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
FanDuel 6.5 +100 6.5 -122
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
Caesars 6.5 -102 6.5 -118

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue New York RangersSeattle Kraken
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 55.3% 44.7%
Best book price incl. vig 56.1% 43.5%
Kalshi contract price 56.3% 43.7%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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