Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

New Jersey Devils at New York Islanders

All New Jersey Devils predictions · All New York Islanders predictions

NHL · Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 7:10 PM · Final: 5-4

The model's call
New Jersey Devils to win
Model confidence 57.2%
Books consensus 57.2%
Result New Jersey Devils won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book New Jersey DevilsNew York Islanders
BetMGM -145 +120
BetRivers -155 +130
DraftKings -148 +124
ESPN BET -150 +130
Fanatics -145 +120
FanDuel -144 +120
Hard Rock Bet -155 +120
Novig -135 +133
Caesars -145 +124

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Devils −1.5
priced 36.3% to cover · 8 books
New York Islanders covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 5.5
priced 54.9% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
Over 5.5 (9 scored)
Spread by book DevilsIslanders
BetMGM −1.5 +165 +1.5 -200
BetRivers −1.5 +160 +1.5 -200
DraftKings −1.5 +164 +1.5 -198
ESPN BET −1.5 +170 +1.5 -210
Fanatics −1.5 +165 +1.5 -205
FanDuel −1.5 +160 +1.5 -200
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +160 +1.5 -210
Caesars −1.5 +160 +1.5 -195
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -110 6 -110
BetRivers 5.5 -134 5.5 +108
DraftKings 5.5 -135 5.5 +114
ESPN BET 6.5 +110 6.5 -130
Fanatics 5.5 -135 5.5 +110
FanDuel 5.5 -140 5.5 +114
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 +105 6.5 -130
Caesars 6 -107 6 -115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue New Jersey DevilsNew York Islanders
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 57.2% 42.8%
Best book price incl. vig 57.4% 42.9%
Kalshi contract price 58.5% 41.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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