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Utah Mammoth at Ottawa Senators

All Utah Mammoth predictions · All Ottawa Senators predictions

NHL · Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 7:19 PM · Final: 2-4

The model's call
Utah Mammoth to win
Model confidence 52.2%
Books consensus 52.2%
Result Ottawa Senators won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Utah MammothOttawa Senators
BetMGM -120 +100
BetRivers -120 +100
DraftKings -120 +100
ESPN BET -115 -105
Fanatics -115 -105
FanDuel -120 +100
Hard Rock Bet -120 -110
Novig -111 +108
Caesars -120 +101

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Mammoth −1.5
priced 31.6% to cover · 8 books
Ottawa Senators covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 51.1% over · 8 books
Under 6.5 (6 scored)
Spread by book MammothSenators
BetMGM −1.5 +200 +1.5 -250
BetRivers −1.5 +205 +1.5 -265
DraftKings −1.5 +205 +1.5 -250
ESPN BET −1.5 +215 +1.5 -290
Fanatics −1.5 +190 +1.5 -240
FanDuel −1.5 +198 +1.5 -250
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +200 +1.5 -300
Caesars −1.5 +199 +1.5 -240
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -118 6.5 -102
BetRivers 6.5 -108 6.5 -115
DraftKings 6.5 -118 6.5 -102
ESPN BET 6.5 -115 6.5 -105
Fanatics 6.5 -115 6.5 -105
FanDuel 6.5 -115 6.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -115 6.5 -105
Caesars 6.5 -121 6.5 +100

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Utah MammothOttawa Senators
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 52.2% 47.8%
Best book price incl. vig 52.6% 48.1%
Kalshi contract price 52.0% 48.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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