Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Pittsburgh Penguins at Los Angeles Kings

All Pittsburgh Penguins predictions · All Los Angeles Kings predictions

NHL · Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 9:12 PM · Final: 5-2

The model's call
Los Angeles Kings to win
Model confidence 52.2%
Books consensus 52.2%
Result Pittsburgh Penguins won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Pittsburgh PenguinsLos Angeles Kings
BetMGM +100 -120
BetRivers +102 -121
DraftKings -102 -118
ESPN BET +100 -120
Fanatics +100 -120
FanDuel +102 -122
Hard Rock Bet -105 -125
Novig +108 -111
Caesars -102 -120

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Kings −1.5
priced 31.8% to cover · 8 books
Pittsburgh Penguins covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 49.1% over · 8 books
Over 6.5 (7 scored)
Spread by book PenguinsKings
BetMGM +1.5 -250 −1.5 +200
BetRivers +1.5 -250 −1.5 +200
DraftKings +1.5 -245 −1.5 +200
ESPN BET +1.5 -260 −1.5 +210
Fanatics +1.5 -255 −1.5 +200
FanDuel +1.5 -235 −1.5 +186
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -300 −1.5 +200
Caesars +1.5 -240 −1.5 +197
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
BetRivers 6.5 -112 6.5 -112
DraftKings 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
ESPN BET 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
Fanatics 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
FanDuel 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
Caesars 6.5 -108 6.5 -115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Pittsburgh PenguinsLos Angeles Kings
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 47.8% 52.2%
Best book price incl. vig 48.1% 52.6%
Kalshi contract price 48.5% 51.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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