Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Vancouver Canucks at Edmonton Oilers

All Vancouver Canucks predictions · All Edmonton Oilers predictions

NHL · Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 10:14 PM · Final: 2-4

The model's call
Edmonton Oilers to win
Model confidence 75.7%
Books consensus 75.7%
Result Edmonton Oilers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Vancouver CanucksEdmonton Oilers
BetMGM +300 -375
BetRivers +300 -385
DraftKings +295 -375
ESPN BET +300 -400
Fanatics +290 -375
FanDuel +280 -360
Hard Rock Bet +275 -425
Novig +344 -355
Caesars +280 -360

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Oilers −1.5
priced 57.5% to cover · 4 books, 4 on another number
Edmonton Oilers covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 57.2% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Under 6.5 (6 scored)
Spread by book CanucksOilers
BetMGM +2.5 -125 −2.5 +105
BetRivers +1.5 +118 −1.5 -148
DraftKings +1.5 +130 −1.5 -155
ESPN BET +2.5 -130 −2.5 +110
Fanatics +2.5 -135 −2.5 +110
FanDuel +1.5 +120 −1.5 -148
Hard Rock Bet +2.5 -130 −2.5 +105
Caesars +1.5 +130 −1.5 -155
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 7 +100 7 -120
BetRivers 6.5 -155 6.5 +123
DraftKings 6.5 -148 6.5 +124
ESPN BET 6.5 -155 6.5 +125
Fanatics 6.5 -145 6.5 +120
FanDuel 6.5 -150 6.5 +122
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -145 6.5 +115
Caesars 7 -113 7 -113

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Vancouver CanucksEdmonton Oilers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 24.3% 75.7%
Best book price incl. vig 22.5% 78.0%
Kalshi contract price 22.5% 77.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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