Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns

All Houston Rockets predictions · All Phoenix Suns predictions

NBA · Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 9:11 PM · Final: 99-102

The model's call
Houston Rockets to win
Model confidence 70.1%
Books consensus 70.1%
Result Phoenix Suns won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Houston RocketsPhoenix Suns
BetMGM -275 +225
BetRivers -250 +200
DraftKings -264 +217
ESPN BET -270 +220
Fanatics -275 +220
FanDuel -260 +215
Hard Rock Bet -275 +225
Novig -239 +233
Caesars -285 +228

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Rockets −6.5
priced 51.1% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
Phoenix Suns covered +6.5
Total · closing
O/U 223.5
priced 51.1% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened 220.5
Under 223.5 (201 scored)
Spread by book RocketsSuns
BetMGM −6.5 -110 +6.5 -110
BetRivers −7.5 -105 +7.5 -118
DraftKings −6.5 -108 +6.5 -112
ESPN BET −6.5 -110 +6.5 -110
Fanatics −6.5 -115 +6.5 -105
FanDuel −6.5 -115 +6.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet −6.5 -115 +6.5 -105
Caesars −6.5 -120 +6.5 +100
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 223.5 -110 223.5 -110
BetRivers 223.5 -110 223.5 -112
DraftKings 223.5 -115 223.5 -105
ESPN BET 223.5 -115 223.5 -105
Fanatics 224 -110 224 -110
FanDuel 223.5 -108 223.5 -112
Hard Rock Bet 223.5 -115 223.5 -105
Caesars 223.5 -115 223.5 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Houston RocketsPhoenix Suns
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 70.1% 29.9%
Best book price incl. vig 70.5% 30.0%
Kalshi contract price 70.5% 29.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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