Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Brooklyn Nets at Atlanta Hawks

All Brooklyn Nets predictions · All Atlanta Hawks predictions

NBA · Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 7:40 PM · Final: 121-124

The model's call
Atlanta Hawks to win
Model confidence 70.0%
Books consensus 70.0%
Result Atlanta Hawks won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Brooklyn NetsAtlanta Hawks
BetMGM +220 -275
BetRivers +215 -275
DraftKings +217 -265
ESPN BET +215 -260
Fanatics +220 -275
FanDuel +220 -270
Hard Rock Bet +230 -275
Novig +233 -239
Caesars +210 -260

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Hawks −6.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 6 books, 2 on another number
Brooklyn Nets covered +6.5
Total · closing
O/U 226.5
priced 50.4% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
opened 223.5
Over 226.5 (245 scored)
Spread by book NetsHawks
BetMGM +6.5 -110 −6.5 -110
BetRivers +7.5 -114 −7.5 -109
DraftKings +6.5 -110 −6.5 -110
ESPN BET +6.5 -110 −6.5 -110
Fanatics +6.5 -110 −6.5 -110
FanDuel +7.5 -120 −7.5 -102
Hard Rock Bet +6.5 -105 −6.5 -115
Caesars +6.5 -110 −6.5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 227.5 -110 227.5 -118
BetRivers 226.5 -108 226.5 -114
DraftKings 227.5 -109 227.5 -111
ESPN BET 227.5 -105 227.5 -115
Fanatics 227 -110 227 -110
FanDuel 226.5 -114 226.5 -106
Hard Rock Bet 226.5 -115 226.5 -105
Caesars 226.5 -110 226.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Brooklyn NetsAtlanta Hawks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 30.0% 70.0%
Best book price incl. vig 30.0% 70.5%
Kalshi contract price 29.5% 70.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record