Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers

All New York Knicks predictions · All Cleveland Cavaliers predictions

NBA · Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 8:13 PM · Final: 109-97

The model's call
New York Knicks to win
Model confidence 63.7%
Books consensus 63.7%
Result New York Knicks won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book New York KnicksCleveland Cavaliers
BetMGM -200 +165
BetRivers -186 +150
DraftKings -197 +164
ESPN BET -195 +165
Fanatics -200 +165
FanDuel -196 +164
Hard Rock Bet -200 +165
Novig -178 +174
Caesars -190 +158

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Knicks −4.5
priced 51.1% to cover · 8 books
opened Knicks −3.5
New York Knicks covered −4.5
Total · closing
O/U 223.5
priced 48.9% over · 3 books, 5 on another number
opened 224.5
Under 223.5 (206 scored)
Spread by book KnicksCavaliers
BetMGM −4.5 -115 +4.5 -105
BetRivers −4.5 -112 +4.5 -110
DraftKings −4.5 -112 +4.5 -108
ESPN BET −4.5 -110 +4.5 -110
Fanatics −4.5 -115 +4.5 -105
FanDuel −4.5 -115 +4.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet −4.5 -115 +4.5 -105
Caesars −4.5 -115 +4.5 -105
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 223.5 -105 223.5 -115
BetRivers 223.5 -113 223.5 -110
DraftKings 222.5 -111 222.5 -109
ESPN BET 221.5 -115 221.5 -105
Fanatics 223 -110 223 -110
FanDuel 223.5 -104 223.5 -118
Hard Rock Bet 222.5 -115 222.5 -105
Caesars 223 -110 223 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue New York KnicksCleveland Cavaliers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 63.7% 36.3%
Best book price incl. vig 64.0% 36.5%
Kalshi contract price 63.5% 36.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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