Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Washington Wizards at Oklahoma City Thunder

All Washington Wizards predictions · All Oklahoma City Thunder predictions

NBA · Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 8:11 PM · Final: 75-114

The model's call
Oklahoma City Thunder to win
Model confidence 83.2%
Books consensus 83.2%
Result Oklahoma City Thunder won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Washington WizardsOklahoma City Thunder
BetMGM +475 -650
BetRivers +480 -715
DraftKings +458 -620
ESPN BET +450 -700
Fanatics +460 -650
FanDuel +480 -650
Hard Rock Bet +500 -700
Novig +488 -525
Caesars +460 -650

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Thunder −12.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened Thunder −11.5
Oklahoma City Thunder covered −12.5
Total · closing
O/U 224.5
priced 50.0% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
opened 220.5
Under 224.5 (189 scored)
Spread by book WizardsThunder
BetMGM +12.5 -110 −12.5 -110
BetRivers +13.5 -120 −13.5 -104
DraftKings +12.5 -110 −12.5 -110
ESPN BET +12.5 -115 −12.5 -105
Fanatics +12.5 -110 −12.5 -110
FanDuel +12.5 -112 −12.5 -108
Hard Rock Bet +12.5 -110 −12.5 -110
Caesars +12.5 +100 −12.5 -120
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 224.5 -110 224.5 -110
BetRivers 223.5 -114 223.5 -108
DraftKings 224.5 -108 224.5 -111
ESPN BET 223.5 -115 223.5 -105
Fanatics 224.5 -110 224.5 -110
FanDuel 224.5 -110 224.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 223.5 -115 223.5 -105
Caesars 225 -110 225 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Washington WizardsOklahoma City Thunder
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 16.8% 83.2%
Best book price incl. vig 16.7% 84.0%
Kalshi contract price 16.5% 83.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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