Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers

All San Antonio Spurs predictions · All Portland Trail Blazers predictions

NBA · Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 10:12 PM · Final: 125-103

The model's call
San Antonio Spurs to win
Model confidence 65.8%
Books consensus 65.8%
Result San Antonio Spurs won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book San Antonio SpursPortland Trail Blazers
BetMGM -220 +180
BetRivers -220 +175
DraftKings -217 +180
ESPN BET -210 +175
Fanatics -220 +180
FanDuel -225 +188
Hard Rock Bet -230 +185
Novig -199 +194
Caesars -210 +175

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Spurs −5.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 8 books
opened Spurs −3.5
San Antonio Spurs covered −5.5
Total · closing
O/U 228.5
priced 50.4% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
opened 227.5
Under 228.5 (228 scored)
Spread by book SpursTrail Blazers
BetMGM −5.5 -110 +5.5 -110
BetRivers −5.5 -113 +5.5 -110
DraftKings −5.5 -112 +5.5 -108
ESPN BET −5.5 -110 +5.5 -110
Fanatics −5.5 -110 +5.5 -110
FanDuel −5.5 -110 +5.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet −5.5 -110 +5.5 -110
Caesars −5.5 -105 +5.5 -115
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 228.5 -118 228.5 -110
BetRivers 229.5 -114 229.5 -108
DraftKings 228.5 -110 228.5 -110
ESPN BET 228.5 -110 228.5 -110
Fanatics 229 -110 229 -110
FanDuel 229.5 -105 229.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet 228.5 -115 228.5 -105
Caesars 229 -110 229 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue San Antonio SpursPortland Trail Blazers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 65.8% 34.2%
Best book price incl. vig 66.6% 34.0%
Kalshi contract price 66.5% 33.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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