Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Florida Panthers at Boston Bruins

All Florida Panthers predictions · All Boston Bruins predictions

NHL · Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 1:08 PM · Final: 1-4

The model's call
Boston Bruins to win
Model confidence 57.1%
Books consensus 57.1%
Result Boston Bruins won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Florida PanthersBoston Bruins
BetMGM +120 -145
BetRivers +128 -152
DraftKings +130 -155
ESPN BET +125 -145
Fanatics +120 -145
FanDuel +114 -137
Hard Rock Bet +120 -155
Novig +138 -141
Caesars +123 -148

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Bruins −1.5
priced 35.2% to cover · 8 books
Boston Bruins covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 5.5
priced 52.2% over · 8 books
opened 6.5
Under 5.5 (5 scored)
Spread by book PanthersBruins
BetMGM +1.5 -200 −1.5 +165
BetRivers +1.5 -215 −1.5 +170
DraftKings +1.5 -198 −1.5 +164
ESPN BET +1.5 -215 −1.5 +175
Fanatics +1.5 -215 −1.5 +170
FanDuel +1.5 -225 −1.5 +180
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -230 −1.5 +175
Caesars +1.5 -185 −1.5 +150
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 5.5 -120 5.5 +100
BetRivers 5.5 -137 5.5 +110
DraftKings 5.5 -120 5.5 +100
ESPN BET 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
Fanatics 5.5 -120 5.5 +100
FanDuel 5.5 -128 5.5 +104
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
Caesars 5.5 -130 5.5 +108

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Florida PanthersBoston Bruins
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 42.9% 57.1%
Best book price incl. vig 42.0% 57.8%
Kalshi contract price 41.5% 58.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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