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Vegas Golden Knights at Buffalo Sabres

All Vegas Golden Knights predictions · All Buffalo Sabres predictions

NHL · Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 3:38 PM · Final: 4-1

The model's call
Vegas Golden Knights to win
Model confidence 52.2%
Books consensus 52.2%
Result Vegas Golden Knights won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Vegas Golden KnightsBuffalo Sabres
BetMGM -120 +100
BetRivers -108 -110
DraftKings -122 +102
ESPN BET -110 -110
Fanatics -120 +100
FanDuel -122 +102
Hard Rock Bet -120 -110
Novig -111 +104
Caesars -125 +105

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Golden Knights −1.5
priced 31.2% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened Sabres −1.5
Vegas Golden Knights covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 48.9% over · 8 books
Under 6.5 (5 scored)
Spread by book Golden KnightsSabres
BetMGM −1.5 +190 +1.5 -235
BetRivers +1.5 -295 −1.5 +225
DraftKings −1.5 +210 +1.5 -258
ESPN BET −1.5 +220 +1.5 -325
Fanatics −1.5 +200 +1.5 -255
FanDuel −1.5 +205 +1.5 -260
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +200 +1.5 -300
Caesars −1.5 +190 +1.5 -235
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
BetRivers 6.5 -106 6.5 -118
DraftKings 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
ESPN BET 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
Fanatics 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
FanDuel 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
Caesars 6.5 -112 6.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Vegas Golden KnightsBuffalo Sabres
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 52.2% 47.8%
Best book price incl. vig 51.9% 48.8%
Kalshi contract price 51.8% 48.2%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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