Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Philadelphia Flyers at Calgary Flames

All Philadelphia Flyers predictions · All Calgary Flames predictions

NHL · Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 7:11 PM · Final: 3-4

The model's call
Philadelphia Flyers to win
Model confidence 52.2%
Books consensus 52.2%
Result Calgary Flames won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Philadelphia FlyersCalgary Flames
BetMGM -120 +100
BetRivers -113 -106
DraftKings -122 +102
ESPN BET -120 +100
Fanatics -120 +100
FanDuel -120 +100
Hard Rock Bet -120 -110
Novig -115 +113
Caesars -120 +100

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Flyers −1.5
priced 30.8% to cover · 8 books
Calgary Flames covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 5.5
priced 51.8% over · 8 books
Over 5.5 (7 scored)
Spread by book FlyersFlames
BetMGM −1.5 +200 +1.5 -250
BetRivers −1.5 +225 +1.5 -295
DraftKings −1.5 +210 +1.5 -258
ESPN BET −1.5 +215 +1.5 -290
Fanatics −1.5 +200 +1.5 -255
FanDuel −1.5 +210 +1.5 -265
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +200 +1.5 -300
Caesars −1.5 +215 +1.5 -265
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 5.5 -118 5.5 -102
BetRivers 5.5 -121 5.5 -104
DraftKings 5.5 -118 5.5 -102
ESPN BET 5.5 -110 5.5 -110
Fanatics 5.5 -120 5.5 +100
FanDuel 5.5 -122 5.5 +100
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -110 5.5 -110
Caesars 5.5 -125 5.5 +103

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Philadelphia FlyersCalgary Flames
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 52.2% 47.8%
Best book price incl. vig 53.1% 46.9%
Kalshi contract price 53.5% 46.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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