Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Pittsburgh Penguins at Anaheim Ducks

All Pittsburgh Penguins predictions · All Anaheim Ducks predictions

NHL · Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 8:08 PM · Final: 2-5

The model's call
Anaheim Ducks to win
Model confidence 52.2%
Books consensus 52.2%
Result Anaheim Ducks won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Pittsburgh PenguinsAnaheim Ducks
BetMGM +100 -120
BetRivers +107 -125
DraftKings +100 -120
ESPN BET +100 -120
Fanatics +100 -120
FanDuel -102 -118
Hard Rock Bet -110 -120
Novig +106 -111
Caesars +105 -130

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Ducks −1.5
priced 33.3% to cover · 8 books
Anaheim Ducks covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 59.2% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Over 6.5 (7 scored)
Spread by book PenguinsDucks
BetMGM +1.5 -220 −1.5 +180
BetRivers +1.5 -240 −1.5 +185
DraftKings +1.5 -230 −1.5 +190
ESPN BET +1.5 -250 −1.5 +200
Fanatics +1.5 -235 −1.5 +185
FanDuel +1.5 -240 −1.5 +190
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -250 −1.5 +180
Caesars +1.5 -230 −1.5 +170
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 7 -110 7 -110
BetRivers 6.5 -165 6.5 +132
DraftKings 6.5 -162 6.5 +136
ESPN BET 6.5 -165 6.5 +130
Fanatics 6.5 -165 6.5 +135
FanDuel 6.5 -168 6.5 +136
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -165 6.5 +130
Caesars 7 -112 7 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Pittsburgh PenguinsAnaheim Ducks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 47.8% 52.2%
Best book price incl. vig 48.3% 52.6%
Kalshi contract price 47.5% 52.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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