Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Lakers at Detroit Pistons

All Los Angeles Lakers predictions · All Detroit Pistons predictions

NBA · Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 6:11 PM · Final: 121-116

The model's call
Detroit Pistons to win
Model confidence 70.1%
Books consensus 70.1%
Result Los Angeles Lakers won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles LakersDetroit Pistons
BetMGM +220 -275
BetRivers +230 -295
DraftKings +226 -277
ESPN BET +215 -260
Fanatics +210 -260
FanDuel +220 -270
Hard Rock Bet +225 -260
Novig +233 -239
Caesars +228 -285

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Pistons −7.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened Pistons −4.5
Los Angeles Lakers covered +7.5
Total · closing
O/U 216.5
priced 50.3% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened 221.5
Over 216.5 (237 scored)
Spread by book LakersPistons
BetMGM +7.5 -110 −7.5 -110
BetRivers +7.5 -115 −7.5 -108
DraftKings +8.5 -118 −8.5 -103
ESPN BET +7.5 -110 −7.5 -110
Fanatics +7.5 -115 −7.5 -105
FanDuel +7.5 -112 −7.5 -108
Hard Rock Bet +7.5 -105 −7.5 -115
Caesars +7.5 -110 −7.5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 217.5 -105 217.5 -115
BetRivers 215.5 -109 215.5 -114
DraftKings 216.5 -113 216.5 -107
ESPN BET 216.5 -110 216.5 -110
Fanatics 216.5 -110 216.5 -110
FanDuel 216.5 -114 216.5 -106
Hard Rock Bet 216.5 -115 216.5 -105
Caesars 216.5 -105 216.5 -115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles LakersDetroit Pistons
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 29.9% 70.1%
Best book price incl. vig 30.0% 70.5%
Kalshi contract price 29.5% 70.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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