Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Philadelphia 76ers at Chicago Bulls

All Philadelphia 76ers predictions · All Chicago Bulls predictions

NBA · Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 3:40 PM · Final: 127-121

The model's call
Philadelphia 76ers to win
Model confidence 77.6%
Books consensus 77.6%
Result Philadelphia 76ers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Philadelphia 76ersChicago Bulls
BetMGM -400 +310
BetRivers -420 +310
DraftKings -423 +331
ESPN BET -450 +340
Fanatics -425 +325
FanDuel -370 +295
Hard Rock Bet -450 +325
Novig -376 +365
Caesars -430 +328

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
76ers −9.5
priced 48.9% to cover · 8 books
opened 76ers −8.5
Chicago Bulls covered +9.5
Total · closing
O/U 238.5
priced 50.8% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Over 238.5 (248 scored)
Spread by book 76ersBulls
BetMGM −9.5 -110 +9.5 -110
BetRivers −9.5 -106 +9.5 -117
DraftKings −9.5 -107 +9.5 -113
ESPN BET −9.5 -105 +9.5 -115
Fanatics −9.5 -105 +9.5 -115
FanDuel −9.5 -105 +9.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet −9.5 +100 +9.5 -120
Caesars −9.5 -115 +9.5 -105
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 238.5 -115 238.5 -105
BetRivers 238.5 -109 238.5 -113
DraftKings 238.5 -115 238.5 -105
ESPN BET 239.5 -105 239.5 -115
Fanatics 239 -110 239 -110
FanDuel 238.5 -112 238.5 -108
Hard Rock Bet 238.5 -110 238.5 -110
Caesars 238.5 -115 238.5 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Philadelphia 76ersChicago Bulls
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 77.6% 22.4%
Best book price incl. vig 78.7% 21.5%
Kalshi contract price 78.5% 21.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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