Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Utah Jazz at Minnesota Timberwolves

All Utah Jazz predictions · All Minnesota Timberwolves predictions

NBA · Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 7:11 PM · Final: 100-115

The model's call
Minnesota Timberwolves to win
Model confidence 84.0%
Books consensus 84.0%
Result Minnesota Timberwolves won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Utah JazzMinnesota Timberwolves
BetMGM +500 -700
BetRivers +510 -770
DraftKings +504 -700
ESPN BET +500 -800
Fanatics +460 -650
FanDuel +500 -700
Hard Rock Bet +475 -700
Novig +567 -590
Caesars +500 -700

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Timberwolves −12.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened Timberwolves −10.5
Minnesota Timberwolves covered −12.5
Total · closing
O/U 222.5
priced 49.1% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened 223.5
Under 222.5 (215 scored)
Spread by book JazzTimberwolves
BetMGM +12.5 -110 −12.5 -110
BetRivers +13.5 -118 −13.5 -105
DraftKings +12.5 -112 −12.5 -108
ESPN BET +12.5 -115 −12.5 -105
Fanatics +12.5 -110 −12.5 -110
FanDuel +12.5 -114 −12.5 -106
Hard Rock Bet +12.5 -110 −12.5 -110
Caesars +12.5 -105 −12.5 -115
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 222.5 -105 222.5 -115
BetRivers 222.5 -115 222.5 -107
DraftKings 222.5 -106 222.5 -114
ESPN BET 222.5 -105 222.5 -115
Fanatics 222 -110 222 -110
FanDuel 221.5 -110 221.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 221.5 -115 221.5 -105
Caesars 222.5 -110 222.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Utah JazzMinnesota Timberwolves
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 16.0% 84.0%
Best book price incl. vig 15.0% 85.5%
Kalshi contract price 15.5% 84.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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