Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks

All Boston Celtics predictions · All Milwaukee Bucks predictions

NBA · Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 8:12 PM · Final: 117-97

The model's call
Boston Celtics to win
Model confidence 85.4%
Books consensus 85.4%
Result Boston Celtics won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Boston CelticsMilwaukee Bucks
BetMGM -900 +575
BetRivers -770 +510
DraftKings -790 +552
ESPN BET -900 +550
Fanatics -800 +550
FanDuel -850 +590
Hard Rock Bet -850 +575
Novig -641 +614
Caesars -800 +550

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Celtics −13.5
priced 50.2% to cover · 8 books
opened Celtics −12.5
Boston Celtics covered −13.5
Total · closing
O/U 222.5
priced 50.0% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
Under 222.5 (214 scored)
Spread by book CelticsBucks
BetMGM −13.5 -110 +13.5 -110
BetRivers −13.5 -106 +13.5 -117
DraftKings −13.5 -112 +13.5 -108
ESPN BET −13.5 -115 +13.5 -105
Fanatics −13.5 -110 +13.5 -110
FanDuel −13.5 -110 +13.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet −13.5 -115 +13.5 -105
Caesars −13.5 -115 +13.5 -105
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 222.5 -110 222.5 -110
BetRivers 223.5 -109 223.5 -113
DraftKings 222.5 -105 222.5 -115
ESPN BET 222.5 -115 222.5 -105
Fanatics 222.5 -110 222.5 -110
FanDuel 221.5 -115 221.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet 221.5 -115 221.5 -105
Caesars 223.5 -110 223.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Boston CelticsMilwaukee Bucks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 85.4% 14.6%
Best book price incl. vig 86.5% 14.0%
Kalshi contract price 86.5% 13.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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