Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Brooklyn Nets at Dallas Mavericks

All Brooklyn Nets predictions · All Dallas Mavericks predictions

NBA · Sunday, November 8, 2026 · 7:41 PM · Final: 93-130

The model's call
Dallas Mavericks to win
Model confidence 71.8%
Books consensus 71.8%
Result Dallas Mavericks won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Brooklyn NetsDallas Mavericks
BetMGM +240 -300
BetRivers +230 -295
DraftKings +248 -305
ESPN BET +240 -290
Fanatics +240 -300
FanDuel +240 -295
Hard Rock Bet +250 -325
Novig +264 -270
Caesars +240 -305

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Mavericks −7.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 8 books
opened Mavericks −9.5
Dallas Mavericks covered −7.5
Total · closing
O/U 223.5
priced 50.0% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened 220.5
Under 223.5 (223 scored)
Spread by book NetsMavericks
BetMGM +7.5 -110 −7.5 -110
BetRivers +7.5 -110 −7.5 -112
DraftKings +7.5 -113 −7.5 -107
ESPN BET +7.5 -115 −7.5 -105
Fanatics +7.5 -110 −7.5 -110
FanDuel +7.5 -110 −7.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet +7.5 -105 −7.5 -115
Caesars +7.5 -110 −7.5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 223.5 -110 223.5 -110
BetRivers 223.5 -109 223.5 -114
DraftKings 223.5 -108 223.5 -112
ESPN BET 224.5 -105 224.5 -115
Fanatics 223.5 -110 223.5 -110
FanDuel 223.5 -110 223.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 223.5 -110 223.5 -110
Caesars 223.5 -115 223.5 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Brooklyn NetsDallas Mavericks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 28.2% 71.8%
Best book price incl. vig 27.5% 73.0%
Kalshi contract price 26.8% 73.2%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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