Fresno State Bulldogs at Texas State Bobcats
All Fresno State Bulldogs predictions · All Texas State Bobcats predictions
College Football · Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 4:00 PM
The model's call
Texas State Bobcats to win
Model confidence 75.4%
Books consensus 75.4%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus
of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself
in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not
an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Fresno State Bulldogs | Texas State Bobcats |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +290 | -350 |
| BetRivers | +285 | -385 |
| DraftKings | +295 | -375 |
| ESPN BET | +280 | -360 |
| Fanatics | +290 | -375 |
| FanDuel | +290 | -375 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +275 | -375 |
| Novig | +317 | -326 |
| Caesars | +285 | -360 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
Spread
Texas State −9.5
priced 50.8% to cover · 8 books
Total
O/U 59.5
priced 50.1% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened 58.5
| Spread by book | Fresno State | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +9.5 -105 | −9.5 -112 |
| BetRivers | +9.5 -108 | −9.5 -115 |
| DraftKings | +9.5 -108 | −9.5 -112 |
| ESPN BET | +9.5 -110 | −9.5 -110 |
| Fanatics | +9.5 -110 | −9.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | +9.5 -105 | −9.5 -115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +9.5 -105 | −9.5 -115 |
| Caesars | +9.5 -106 | −9.5 -114 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 59.5 -110 | 59.5 -108 |
| BetRivers | 60.5 -114 | 60.5 -109 |
| DraftKings | 59.5 -112 | 59.5 -108 |
| ESPN BET | 59.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 |
| Fanatics | 59.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | 59.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 60.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 |
| Caesars | 59.5 -113 | 59.5 -107 |
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