Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

New York Rangers at Edmonton Oilers

All New York Rangers predictions · All Edmonton Oilers predictions

NHL · Monday, November 9, 2026 · 8:10 PM · Final: 1-3

The model's call
Edmonton Oilers to win
Model confidence 59.9%
Books consensus 59.9%
Result Edmonton Oilers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book New York RangersEdmonton Oilers
BetMGM +140 -165
BetRivers +148 -177
DraftKings +136 -162
ESPN BET +140 -165
Fanatics +135 -165
FanDuel +138 -170
Hard Rock Bet +130 -170
Novig +150 -153
Caesars +140 -170

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Oilers −1.5
priced 39.1% to cover · 8 books
Edmonton Oilers covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 51.1% over · 8 books
Under 6.5 (4 scored)
Spread by book RangersOilers
BetMGM +1.5 -175 −1.5 +145
BetRivers +1.5 -175 −1.5 +140
DraftKings +1.5 -180 −1.5 +150
ESPN BET +1.5 -180 −1.5 +150
Fanatics +1.5 -180 −1.5 +145
FanDuel +1.5 -170 −1.5 +138
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -185 −1.5 +140
Caesars +1.5 -170 −1.5 +135
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -115 6.5 -105
BetRivers 6.5 -127 6.5 +102
DraftKings 6.5 -112 6.5 -108
ESPN BET 6.5 -115 6.5 -105
Fanatics 6.5 -115 6.5 -105
FanDuel 6.5 -115 6.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -115 6.5 -105
Caesars 6.5 -113 6.5 -109

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue New York RangersEdmonton Oilers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 40.1% 59.9%
Best book price incl. vig 40.0% 60.5%
Kalshi contract price 39.5% 60.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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