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New York Islanders at San Jose Sharks

All New York Islanders predictions · All San Jose Sharks predictions

NHL · Monday, November 9, 2026 · 10:10 PM · Final: 2-3

The model's call
New York Islanders to win
Model confidence 56.4%
Books consensus 56.4%
Result San Jose Sharks won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book New York IslandersSan Jose Sharks
BetMGM -145 +120
BetRivers -137 +116
DraftKings -142 +120
ESPN BET -140 +120
Fanatics -145 +120
FanDuel -140 +116
Hard Rock Bet -150 +115
Novig -133 +130
Caesars -145 +121

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Islanders −1.5
priced 35.3% to cover · 8 books
San Jose Sharks covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 48.2% over · 8 books
Under 6.5 (5 scored)
Spread by book IslandersSharks
BetMGM −1.5 +170 +1.5 -210
BetRivers −1.5 +180 +1.5 -230
DraftKings −1.5 +170 +1.5 -205
ESPN BET −1.5 +175 +1.5 -215
Fanatics −1.5 +170 +1.5 -215
FanDuel −1.5 +168 +1.5 -210
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +175 +1.5 -230
Caesars −1.5 +160 +1.5 -200
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -102 6.5 -118
BetRivers 6.5 +102 6.5 -125
DraftKings 6.5 -102 6.5 -118
ESPN BET 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
Fanatics 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
FanDuel 6.5 -102 6.5 -120
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
Caesars 6.5 -102 6.5 -122

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue New York IslandersSan Jose Sharks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 56.4% 43.6%
Best book price incl. vig 57.1% 43.5%
Kalshi contract price 57.5% 42.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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