Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns

All San Antonio Spurs predictions · All Phoenix Suns predictions

NBA · Monday, November 9, 2026 · 9:10 PM · Final: 122-96

The model's call
San Antonio Spurs to win
Model confidence 76.6%
Books consensus 76.6%
Result San Antonio Spurs won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book San Antonio SpursPhoenix Suns
BetMGM -425 +320
BetRivers -360 +275
DraftKings -396 +312
ESPN BET -425 +320
Fanatics -400 +310
FanDuel -390 +310
Hard Rock Bet -400 +325
Novig -317 +308
Caesars -355 +278

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Spurs −9.5
priced 48.5% to cover · 3 books, 5 on another number
opened Spurs −7.5
San Antonio Spurs covered −9.5
Total · closing
O/U 225.5
priced 49.1% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
opened 227.5
Under 225.5 (218 scored)
Spread by book SpursSuns
BetMGM −9.5 +100 +9.5 -120
BetRivers −9.5 -107 +9.5 -115
DraftKings −9.5 -103 +9.5 -117
ESPN BET −8.5 -115 +8.5 -105
Fanatics −9 -110 +9 -110
FanDuel −8.5 -114 +8.5 -106
Hard Rock Bet −8.5 -120 +8.5 +100
Caesars −9 -105 +9 -115
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 225.5 -105 225.5 -115
BetRivers 224.5 -108 224.5 -114
DraftKings 225.5 -107 225.5 -113
ESPN BET 224.5 -110 224.5 -110
Fanatics 225 -110 225 -110
FanDuel 225.5 -105 225.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet 225.5 -110 225.5 -110
Caesars 224.5 -105 224.5 -115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue San Antonio SpursPhoenix Suns
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 76.6% 23.4%
Best book price incl. vig 76.0% 23.5%
Kalshi contract price 75.7% 24.3%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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