Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers

All Boston Celtics predictions · All Philadelphia 76ers predictions

NBA · Tuesday, November 10, 2026 · 8:14 PM · Final: 123-101

The model's call
Boston Celtics to win
Model confidence 53.2%
Books consensus 53.2%
Result Boston Celtics won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Boston CelticsPhiladelphia 76ers
BetMGM -125 +105
BetRivers -122 +100
DraftKings -124 +105
ESPN BET -130 +110
Fanatics -125 +105
FanDuel -130 +110
Hard Rock Bet -120 +100
Novig -120 +117
Caesars -120 +100

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Celtics −1.5
priced 50.9% to cover · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened 76ers −1.5
Boston Celtics covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 217.5
priced 50.0% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened 215.5
Over 217.5 (224 scored)
Spread by book Celtics76ers
BetMGM −1.5 -110 +1.5 +100
BetRivers −1.5 -109 +1.5 -113
DraftKings −1.5 -114 +1.5 -106
ESPN BET −2.5 -105 +2.5 -115
Fanatics −2 -110 +2 -110
FanDuel −1.5 -122 +1.5 +100
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 -110 +1.5 -110
Caesars −2 -110 +2 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 217.5 -110 217.5 -110
BetRivers 218.5 -107 218.5 -115
DraftKings 216.5 -113 216.5 -107
ESPN BET 217.5 -110 217.5 -110
Fanatics 217.5 -110 217.5 -110
FanDuel 217.5 -106 217.5 -114
Hard Rock Bet 217.5 -110 217.5 -110
Caesars 217.5 -115 217.5 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Boston CelticsPhiladelphia 76ers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 53.2% 46.8%
Best book price incl. vig 54.5% 46.1%
Kalshi contract price 53.5% 46.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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