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Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons

All Washington Wizards predictions · All Detroit Pistons predictions

NBA · Monday, November 9, 2026 · 7:12 PM · Final: 111-122

The model's call
Detroit Pistons to win
Model confidence 77.5%
Books consensus 77.5%
Result Detroit Pistons won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Washington WizardsDetroit Pistons
BetMGM +325 -425
BetRivers +310 -400
DraftKings +323 -411
ESPN BET +320 -425
Fanatics +325 -425
FanDuel +315 -400
Hard Rock Bet +325 -425
Novig +365 -376
Caesars +328 -430

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Pistons −9.5
priced 48.6% to cover · 4 books, 4 on another number
opened Pistons −10.5
Detroit Pistons covered −9.5
Total · closing
O/U 218.5
priced 51.0% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
Over 218.5 (233 scored)
Spread by book WizardsPistons
BetMGM +8.5 +100 −8.5 -120
BetRivers +9.5 -120 −9.5 -104
DraftKings +9.5 -114 −9.5 -106
ESPN BET +9.5 -115 −9.5 -105
Fanatics +9 -110 −9 -110
FanDuel +8.5 -104 −8.5 -118
Hard Rock Bet +9.5 -120 −9.5 +100
Caesars +9 -105 −9 -115
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 219.5 -110 219.5 -110
BetRivers 218.5 -114 218.5 -108
DraftKings 218.5 -114 218.5 -106
ESPN BET 218.5 -115 218.5 -105
Fanatics 219.5 -110 219.5 -110
FanDuel 218.5 -115 218.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet 219.5 -110 219.5 -110
Caesars 219.5 -115 219.5 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Washington WizardsDetroit Pistons
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 22.5% 77.5%
Best book price incl. vig 21.5% 79.0%
Kalshi contract price 21.5% 78.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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