Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Cleveland Cavaliers at Charlotte Hornets

All Cleveland Cavaliers predictions · All Charlotte Hornets predictions

NBA · Monday, November 9, 2026 · 7:11 PM · Final: 112-124

The model's call
Cleveland Cavaliers to win
Model confidence 73.4%
Books consensus 73.4%
Result Charlotte Hornets won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Cleveland CavaliersCharlotte Hornets
BetMGM -325 +260
BetRivers -335 +255
DraftKings -324 +261
ESPN BET -320 +260
Fanatics -330 +260
FanDuel -320 +260
Hard Rock Bet -350 +275
Novig -292 +285
Caesars -345 +270

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Cavaliers −8.5
priced 48.9% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
Charlotte Hornets covered +8.5
Total · closing
O/U 215.5
priced 50.0% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
Over 215.5 (236 scored)
Spread by book CavaliersHornets
BetMGM −8.5 -102 +8.5 -118
BetRivers −8.5 -110 +8.5 -112
DraftKings −8.5 -108 +8.5 -112
ESPN BET −8.5 -105 +8.5 -115
Fanatics −8.5 -105 +8.5 -115
FanDuel −8.5 -106 +8.5 -114
Hard Rock Bet −8.5 -105 +8.5 -115
Caesars −8 -115 +8 -105
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 215.5 -110 215.5 -110
BetRivers 216.5 -114 216.5 -108
DraftKings 215.5 -110 215.5 -110
ESPN BET 215.5 -110 215.5 -110
Fanatics 215.5 -110 215.5 -110
FanDuel 215.5 -115 215.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet 215.5 -110 215.5 -110
Caesars 215.5 -115 215.5 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Cleveland CavaliersCharlotte Hornets
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 73.4% 26.6%
Best book price incl. vig 74.5% 26.0%
Kalshi contract price 74.5% 25.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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