Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors

All Memphis Grizzlies predictions · All Toronto Raptors predictions

NBA · Monday, November 9, 2026 · 7:35 PM · Final: 118-102

The model's call
Memphis Grizzlies to win
Model confidence 53.2%
Books consensus 53.2%
Result Memphis Grizzlies won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Memphis GrizzliesToronto Raptors
BetMGM -125 +105
BetRivers -122 +102
DraftKings -119 +101
ESPN BET -125 +105
Fanatics -125 +105
FanDuel -124 +106
Hard Rock Bet -125 +105
Novig -117 +115
Caesars -125 +105

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Grizzlies −1.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened Raptors −3.5
Memphis Grizzlies covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 225.5
priced 50.4% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened 229.5
Under 225.5 (220 scored)
Spread by book GrizzliesRaptors
BetMGM −1.5 -110 +1.5 -110
BetRivers −1.5 -109 +1.5 -113
DraftKings −1.5 -111 +1.5 -109
ESPN BET −1.5 -110 +1.5 -110
Fanatics −1.5 -110 +1.5 -110
FanDuel −1.5 -112 +1.5 -108
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 -115 +1.5 -105
Caesars −2 -115 +2 -105
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 225.5 -115 225.5 -105
BetRivers 225.5 -113 225.5 -109
DraftKings 225.5 -112 225.5 -108
ESPN BET 224.5 -115 224.5 -105
Fanatics 226 -110 226 -110
FanDuel 225.5 -115 225.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet 225.5 -110 225.5 -110
Caesars 226.5 -110 226.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Memphis GrizzliesToronto Raptors
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 53.2% 46.8%
Best book price incl. vig 53.9% 46.5%
Kalshi contract price 53.5% 46.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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