Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Lakers at Atlanta Hawks

All Los Angeles Lakers predictions · All Atlanta Hawks predictions

NBA · Monday, November 9, 2026 · 7:10 PM · Final: 124-114

The model's call
Atlanta Hawks to win
Model confidence 56.2%
Books consensus 56.2%
Result Los Angeles Lakers won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles LakersAtlanta Hawks
BetMGM +118 -145
BetRivers +123 -148
DraftKings +121 -144
ESPN BET +120 -140
Fanatics +115 -140
FanDuel +120 -142
Hard Rock Bet +115 -140
Novig +125 -127
Caesars +115 -135

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Hawks −2.5
priced 50.4% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened Lakers −1.5
Los Angeles Lakers covered +2.5
Total · closing
O/U 233.5
priced 50.9% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened 236.5
Over 233.5 (238 scored)
Spread by book LakersHawks
BetMGM +2.5 -105 −2.5 -115
BetRivers +2.5 -109 −2.5 -113
DraftKings +2.5 -106 −2.5 -114
ESPN BET +2.5 -105 −2.5 -115
Fanatics +2.5 -110 −2.5 -110
FanDuel +2.5 -108 −2.5 -112
Hard Rock Bet +2.5 -110 −2.5 -110
Caesars +3 -115 −3 -105
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 234.5 -110 234.5 -110
BetRivers 234.5 -110 234.5 -112
DraftKings 233.5 -114 233.5 -106
ESPN BET 233.5 -105 233.5 -115
Fanatics 233.5 -110 233.5 -110
FanDuel 233.5 -115 233.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet 233.5 -115 233.5 -105
Caesars 235 -115 235 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles LakersAtlanta Hawks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 43.8% 56.2%
Best book price incl. vig 44.4% 55.9%
Kalshi contract price 44.5% 55.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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