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Minnesota Wild at Montréal Canadiens

All Minnesota Wild predictions · All Montréal Canadiens predictions

NHL · Tuesday, November 10, 2026 · 7:22 PM · Final: 2-1

The model's call
Minnesota Wild to win
Model confidence 54.3%
Books consensus 54.3%
Result Minnesota Wild won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Minnesota WildMontréal Canadiens
BetMGM -130 +110
BetRivers -127 +107
DraftKings -130 +110
ESPN BET -135 +115
Fanatics -130 +110
FanDuel -134 +112
Hard Rock Bet -140 +110
Novig -120 +115
Caesars -134 +107

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Wild −1.5
priced 32.7% to cover · 8 books
Montréal Canadiens covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 46.8% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Under 6.5 (3 scored)
Spread by book WildCanadiens
BetMGM −1.5 +195 +1.5 -235
BetRivers −1.5 +195 +1.5 -250
DraftKings −1.5 +195 +1.5 -238
ESPN BET −1.5 +180 +1.5 -225
Fanatics −1.5 +190 +1.5 -240
FanDuel −1.5 +194 +1.5 -245
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +175 +1.5 -230
Caesars −1.5 +188 +1.5 -245
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -120 6 +100
BetRivers 6.5 +102 6.5 -127
DraftKings 6.5 +105 6.5 -125
ESPN BET 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
Fanatics 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
FanDuel 6.5 +104 6.5 -128
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 +105 6.5 -130
Caesars 6 -125 6 +101

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Minnesota WildMontréal Canadiens
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 54.3% 45.7%
Best book price incl. vig 54.5% 46.5%
Kalshi contract price 54.0% 46.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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