Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

New Jersey Devils at Winnipeg Jets

All New Jersey Devils predictions · All Winnipeg Jets predictions

NHL · Tuesday, November 10, 2026 · 7:10 PM · Final: 2-4

The model's call
New Jersey Devils to win
Model confidence 56.5%
Books consensus 56.5%
Result Winnipeg Jets won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book New Jersey DevilsWinnipeg Jets
BetMGM -145 +120
BetRivers -148 +125
DraftKings -142 +120
ESPN BET -140 +120
Fanatics -145 +120
FanDuel -146 +122
Hard Rock Bet -150 +115
Novig -130 +127
Caesars -143 +121

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Devils −1.5
priced 35.4% to cover · 8 books
Winnipeg Jets covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 48.9% over · 8 books
opened 5.5
Under 6.5 (6 scored)
Spread by book DevilsJets
BetMGM −1.5 +170 +1.5 -210
BetRivers −1.5 +165 +1.5 -210
DraftKings −1.5 +170 +1.5 -205
ESPN BET −1.5 +175 +1.5 -215
Fanatics −1.5 +170 +1.5 -215
FanDuel −1.5 +160 +1.5 -200
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +175 +1.5 -230
Caesars −1.5 +169 +1.5 -200
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
BetRivers 6.5 -107 6.5 -117
DraftKings 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
ESPN BET 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
Fanatics 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
FanDuel 6.5 -104 6.5 -118
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
Caesars 6.5 -104 6.5 -120

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue New Jersey DevilsWinnipeg Jets
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 56.5% 43.5%
Best book price incl. vig 56.5% 44.1%
Kalshi contract price 58.1% 41.9%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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