Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Florida Panthers at Columbus Blue Jackets

All Florida Panthers predictions · All Columbus Blue Jackets predictions

NHL · Tuesday, November 10, 2026 · 7:39 PM · Final: 4-1

The model's call
Florida Panthers to win
Model confidence 53.2%
Books consensus 53.2%
Result Florida Panthers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Florida PanthersColumbus Blue Jackets
BetMGM -125 +105
BetRivers -121 +102
DraftKings -125 +105
ESPN BET -120 +100
Fanatics -125 +105
FanDuel -130 +108
Hard Rock Bet -125 -105
Novig -117 +115
Caesars -121 +103

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Panthers −1.5
priced 31.2% to cover · 8 books
opened Blue Jackets −1.5
Florida Panthers covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 5.5
priced 54.5% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Under 5.5 (5 scored)
Spread by book PanthersBlue Jackets
BetMGM −1.5 +200 +1.5 -250
BetRivers −1.5 +210 +1.5 -275
DraftKings −1.5 +210 +1.5 -258
ESPN BET −1.5 +215 +1.5 -290
Fanatics −1.5 +200 +1.5 -255
FanDuel −1.5 +194 +1.5 -245
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +200 +1.5 -300
Caesars −1.5 +205 +1.5 -250
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -110 6 -110
BetRivers 5.5 -134 5.5 +108
DraftKings 5.5 -135 5.5 +114
ESPN BET 5.5 -130 5.5 +110
Fanatics 5.5 -135 5.5 +110
FanDuel 5.5 -134 5.5 +110
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -130 5.5 +105
Caesars 6 -109 6 -113

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Florida PanthersColumbus Blue Jackets
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 53.2% 46.8%
Best book price incl. vig 53.9% 46.5%
Kalshi contract price 53.0% 47.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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