Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Detroit Red Wings at St Louis Blues

All Detroit Red Wings predictions · All St Louis Blues predictions

NHL · Tuesday, November 10, 2026 · 8:13 PM · Final: 2-3

The model's call
St Louis Blues to win
Model confidence 56.6%
Books consensus 56.6%
Result St Louis Blues won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Detroit Red WingsSt Louis Blues
BetMGM +120 -145
BetRivers +116 -137
DraftKings +120 -142
ESPN BET +125 -145
Fanatics +120 -145
FanDuel +118 -142
Hard Rock Bet +120 -155
Novig +133 -135
Caesars +123 -145

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Blues −1.5
priced 34.7% to cover · 8 books
Detroit Red Wings covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 5.5
priced 52.7% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Under 5.5 (5 scored)
Spread by book Red WingsBlues
BetMGM +1.5 -210 −1.5 +170
BetRivers +1.5 -235 −1.5 +185
DraftKings +1.5 -218 −1.5 +180
ESPN BET +1.5 -215 −1.5 +175
Fanatics +1.5 -220 −1.5 +175
FanDuel +1.5 -210 −1.5 +168
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -230 −1.5 +175
Caesars +1.5 -205 −1.5 +170
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 +100 6 -120
BetRivers 5.5 -125 5.5 +100
DraftKings 5.5 -125 5.5 +105
ESPN BET 5.5 -120 5.5 +100
Fanatics 5.5 -125 5.5 +105
FanDuel 5.5 -124 5.5 +102
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
Caesars 6 +100 6 -122

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Detroit Red WingsSt Louis Blues
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 43.4% 56.6%
Best book price incl. vig 42.9% 57.4%
Kalshi contract price 42.5% 57.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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