Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Nashville Predators at Los Angeles Kings

All Nashville Predators predictions · All Los Angeles Kings predictions

NHL · Tuesday, November 10, 2026 · 10:09 PM · Final: 3-0

The model's call
Los Angeles Kings to win
Model confidence 53.1%
Books consensus 53.1%
Result Nashville Predators won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Nashville PredatorsLos Angeles Kings
BetMGM +105 -125
BetRivers +102 -120
DraftKings +105 -125
ESPN BET +100 -120
Fanatics +105 -125
FanDuel +104 -125
Hard Rock Bet +100 -130
Novig +111 -113
Caesars -105 -118

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Kings −1.5
priced 32.5% to cover · 8 books
Nashville Predators covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 45.4% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened 5.5
Under 6.5 (3 scored)
Spread by book PredatorsKings
BetMGM +1.5 -225 −1.5 +185
BetRivers +1.5 -275 −1.5 +210
DraftKings +1.5 -238 −1.5 +195
ESPN BET +1.5 -260 −1.5 +210
Fanatics +1.5 -240 −1.5 +190
FanDuel +1.5 -235 −1.5 +186
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -300 −1.5 +200
Caesars +1.5 -240 −1.5 +195
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -115 6 -105
BetRivers 6.5 +112 6.5 -139
DraftKings 6.5 +110 6.5 -130
ESPN BET 6.5 +110 6.5 -130
Fanatics 6.5 +110 6.5 -135
FanDuel 6.5 +110 6.5 -134
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -130 5.5 +105
Caesars 6 -125 6 +102

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Nashville PredatorsLos Angeles Kings
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 46.9% 53.1%
Best book price incl. vig 47.4% 53.1%
Kalshi contract price 47.0% 53.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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