Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks

All Milwaukee Bucks predictions · All New York Knicks predictions

NBA · Tuesday, November 10, 2026 · 7:41 PM · Final: 85-117

The model's call
New York Knicks to win
Model confidence 88.1%
Books consensus 88.1%
Result New York Knicks won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Milwaukee BucksNew York Knicks
BetMGM +725 -1200
BetRivers +650 -1115
DraftKings +670 -1040
ESPN BET +750 -1400
Fanatics +700 -1100
FanDuel +750 -1200
Hard Rock Bet +700 -1200
Novig +852 -900
Caesars +700 -1100

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Knicks −15.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 6 books, 2 on another number
New York Knicks covered −15.5
Total · closing
O/U 221.5
priced 50.0% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened 219.5
Under 221.5 (202 scored)
Spread by book BucksKnicks
BetMGM +15.5 -105 −15.5 -115
BetRivers +15.5 -117 −15.5 -106
DraftKings +14.5 -106 −14.5 -114
ESPN BET +14.5 -105 −14.5 -115
Fanatics +15.5 -110 −15.5 -110
FanDuel +15.5 -108 −15.5 -112
Hard Rock Bet +15.5 -110 −15.5 -110
Caesars +15.5 -110 −15.5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 221.5 -110 221.5 -110
BetRivers 220.5 -115 220.5 -107
DraftKings 221.5 -110 221.5 -110
ESPN BET 221.5 -110 221.5 -110
Fanatics 222 -110 222 -110
FanDuel 221.5 -112 221.5 -108
Hard Rock Bet 221.5 -110 221.5 -110
Caesars 220.5 -115 220.5 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Milwaukee BucksNew York Knicks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 11.9% 88.1%
Best book price incl. vig 10.5% 90.0%
Kalshi contract price 10.5% 89.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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