Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Orlando Magic at Sacramento Kings

All Orlando Magic predictions · All Sacramento Kings predictions

NBA · Tuesday, November 10, 2026 · 10:11 PM · Final: 107-100

The model's call
Orlando Magic to win
Model confidence 65.7%
Books consensus 65.7%
Result Orlando Magic won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Orlando MagicSacramento Kings
BetMGM -220 +180
BetRivers -205 +165
DraftKings -217 +180
ESPN BET -215 +180
Fanatics -215 +175
FanDuel -220 +184
Hard Rock Bet -225 +185
Novig -190 +186
Caesars -220 +180

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Magic −5.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
Orlando Magic covered −5.5
Total · closing
O/U 221.5
priced 51.0% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
Under 221.5 (207 scored)
Spread by book MagicKings
BetMGM −5.5 -110 +5.5 -110
BetRivers −5.5 -106 +5.5 -117
DraftKings −5.5 -106 +5.5 -114
ESPN BET −5.5 -105 +5.5 -115
Fanatics −5.5 -110 +5.5 -110
FanDuel −5.5 -112 +5.5 -108
Hard Rock Bet −5.5 -110 +5.5 -110
Caesars −6 +100 +6 -120
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 221.5 -118 221.5 -110
BetRivers 222.5 -113 222.5 -109
DraftKings 222.5 -107 222.5 -113
ESPN BET 221.5 -120 221.5 +100
Fanatics 222.5 -110 222.5 -110
FanDuel 221.5 -112 221.5 -108
Hard Rock Bet 221.5 -115 221.5 -105
Caesars 222 -115 222 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Orlando MagicSacramento Kings
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 65.7% 34.3%
Best book price incl. vig 65.5% 35.0%
Kalshi contract price 65.5% 34.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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