Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Clippers at Phoenix Suns

All Los Angeles Clippers predictions · All Phoenix Suns predictions

NBA · Tuesday, November 10, 2026 · 9:11 PM · Final: 110-133

The model's call
Phoenix Suns to win
Model confidence 60.9%
Books consensus 60.9%
Result Phoenix Suns won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles ClippersPhoenix Suns
BetMGM +145 -175
BetRivers +143 -175
DraftKings +150 -179
ESPN BET +150 -175
Fanatics +145 -175
FanDuel +142 -168
Hard Rock Bet +155 -185
Novig +153 -156
Caesars +140 -165

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Suns −3.5
priced 51.1% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
Phoenix Suns covered −3.5
Total · closing
O/U 224.5
priced 49.3% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened 225.5
Over 224.5 (243 scored)
Spread by book ClippersSuns
BetMGM +3.5 -102 −3.5 -118
BetRivers +4.5 -117 −4.5 -106
DraftKings +3.5 -108 −3.5 -112
ESPN BET +3.5 -110 −3.5 -110
Fanatics +3.5 -105 −3.5 -115
FanDuel +3.5 -110 −3.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet +3.5 -105 −3.5 -115
Caesars +3.5 -105 −3.5 -115
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 224.5 -110 224.5 -118
BetRivers 224.5 -113 224.5 -110
DraftKings 224.5 -107 224.5 -113
ESPN BET 224.5 -105 224.5 -115
Fanatics 224 -110 224 -110
FanDuel 224.5 -105 224.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet 224.5 -110 224.5 -110
Caesars 224 -115 224 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles ClippersPhoenix Suns
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 39.1% 60.9%
Best book price incl. vig 39.2% 60.9%
Kalshi contract price 39.5% 60.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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