Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

New York Rangers at Calgary Flames

All New York Rangers predictions · All Calgary Flames predictions

NHL · Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · 7:49 PM · Final: 3-1

The model's call
New York Rangers to win
Model confidence 56.4%
Books consensus 56.4%
Result New York Rangers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book New York RangersCalgary Flames
BetMGM -145 +120
BetRivers -152 +128
DraftKings -142 +120
ESPN BET -140 +120
Fanatics -145 +120
FanDuel -142 +118
Hard Rock Bet -150 +115
Novig -138 +135
Caesars -141 +120

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Rangers −1.5
priced 35.3% to cover · 8 books
New York Rangers covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 5.5
priced 53.5% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Under 5.5 (4 scored)
Spread by book RangersFlames
BetMGM −1.5 +170 +1.5 -210
BetRivers −1.5 +165 +1.5 -210
DraftKings −1.5 +170 +1.5 -205
ESPN BET −1.5 +180 +1.5 -225
Fanatics −1.5 +170 +1.5 -215
FanDuel −1.5 +172 +1.5 -215
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +175 +1.5 -230
Caesars −1.5 +165 +1.5 -205
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 +100 6 -120
BetRivers 5.5 -137 5.5 +110
DraftKings 5.5 -125 5.5 +105
ESPN BET 5.5 -130 5.5 +110
Fanatics 5.5 -125 5.5 +105
FanDuel 5.5 -122 5.5 +100
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -130 5.5 +105
Caesars 6 -102 6 -121

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue New York RangersCalgary Flames
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 56.4% 43.6%
Best book price incl. vig 58.0% 42.6%
Kalshi contract price 56.9% 43.1%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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