Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Philadelphia Flyers at Edmonton Oilers

All Philadelphia Flyers predictions · All Edmonton Oilers predictions

NHL · Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · 9:12 PM · Final: 2-3

The model's call
Edmonton Oilers to win
Model confidence 63.7%
Books consensus 63.7%
Result Edmonton Oilers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Philadelphia FlyersEdmonton Oilers
BetMGM +170 -210
BetRivers +175 -215
DraftKings +160 -192
ESPN BET +165 -195
Fanatics +160 -195
FanDuel +158 -192
Hard Rock Bet +155 -200
Novig +174 -178
Caesars +165 -200

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Oilers −1.5
priced 42.6% to cover · 8 books
Philadelphia Flyers covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 46.6% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
Under 6.5 (5 scored)
Spread by book FlyersOilers
BetMGM +1.5 -150 −1.5 +125
BetRivers +1.5 -150 −1.5 +120
DraftKings +1.5 -148 −1.5 +124
ESPN BET +1.5 -160 −1.5 +135
Fanatics +1.5 -150 −1.5 +125
FanDuel +1.5 -164 −1.5 +134
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -165 −1.5 +130
Caesars +1.5 -138 −1.5 +121
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
BetRivers 6.5 -103 6.5 -122
DraftKings 6.5 +105 6.5 -125
ESPN BET 6.5 +110 6.5 -130
Fanatics 6.5 +110 6.5 -135
FanDuel 6.5 +104 6.5 -128
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 +105 6.5 -130
Caesars 6 -127 6 +105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Philadelphia FlyersEdmonton Oilers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 36.3% 63.7%
Best book price incl. vig 36.4% 64.0%
Kalshi contract price 36.1% 63.9%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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