Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Utah Mammoth at Vegas Golden Knights

All Utah Mammoth predictions · All Vegas Golden Knights predictions

NHL · Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · 9:48 PM

The model's call
Vegas Golden Knights to win
Model confidence 56.6%
Books consensus 56.6%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Utah MammothVegas Golden Knights
BetMGM +120 -145
BetRivers +110 -130
DraftKings +130 -155
ESPN BET +125 -145
Fanatics +120 -145
FanDuel +122 -146
Hard Rock Bet +120 -155
Novig +127 -133
Caesars +118 -140

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Golden Knights −1.5
priced 35.5% to cover · 8 books
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 47.6% over · 8 books
Spread by book MammothGolden Knights
BetMGM +1.5 -200 −1.5 +165
BetRivers +1.5 -245 −1.5 +190
DraftKings +1.5 -205 −1.5 +170
ESPN BET +1.5 -210 −1.5 +170
Fanatics +1.5 -220 −1.5 +175
FanDuel +1.5 -200 −1.5 +160
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -210 −1.5 +160
Caesars +1.5 -205 −1.5 +171
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
BetRivers 6.5 -103 6.5 -122
DraftKings 6.5 +102 6.5 -122
ESPN BET 6.5 +105 6.5 -125
Fanatics 6.5 +105 6.5 -125
FanDuel 6.5 +104 6.5 -128
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
Caesars 6.5 -104 6.5 -120

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Utah MammothVegas Golden Knights
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 43.4% 56.6%
Best book price incl. vig 43.5% 56.5%
Kalshi contract price 46.0% 54.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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