Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Nashville Predators at Anaheim Ducks

All Nashville Predators predictions · All Anaheim Ducks predictions

NHL · Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · 10:10 PM

The model's call
Anaheim Ducks to win
Model confidence 56.0%
Books consensus 56.0%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Nashville PredatorsAnaheim Ducks
BetMGM +115 -135
BetRivers +125 -150
DraftKings +114 -135
ESPN BET +120 -140
Fanatics +110 -130
FanDuel +112 -134
Hard Rock Bet +115 -150
Novig +125 -130
Caesars +121 -140

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Ducks −1.5
priced 35.7% to cover · 8 books
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 56.8% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Spread by book PredatorsDucks
BetMGM +1.5 -210 −1.5 +170
BetRivers +1.5 -200 −1.5 +160
DraftKings +1.5 -218 −1.5 +180
ESPN BET +1.5 -210 −1.5 +170
Fanatics +1.5 -215 −1.5 +170
FanDuel +1.5 -200 −1.5 +160
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -210 −1.5 +160
Caesars +1.5 -200 −1.5 +165
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 7 +105 7 -130
BetRivers 6.5 -137 6.5 +112
DraftKings 6.5 -148 6.5 +124
ESPN BET 6.5 -155 6.5 +125
Fanatics 6.5 -145 6.5 +120
FanDuel 6.5 -150 6.5 +122
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -145 6.5 +115
Caesars 7 +105 7 -128

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Nashville PredatorsAnaheim Ducks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 44.0% 56.0%
Best book price incl. vig 44.4% 56.5%
Kalshi contract price 43.5% 56.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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