Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Pittsburgh Penguins at San Jose Sharks

All Pittsburgh Penguins predictions · All San Jose Sharks predictions

NHL · Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · 10:08 PM

The model's call
Pittsburgh Penguins to win
Model confidence 57.2%
Books consensus 57.2%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Pittsburgh PenguinsSan Jose Sharks
BetMGM -145 +120
BetRivers -139 +117
DraftKings -148 +124
ESPN BET -145 +125
Fanatics -150 +125
FanDuel -144 +120
Hard Rock Bet -155 +120
Novig -138 +135
Caesars -150 +125

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Penguins −1.5
priced 36.4% to cover · 8 books
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 56.0% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
Spread by book PenguinsSharks
BetMGM −1.5 +165 +1.5 -200
BetRivers −1.5 +170 +1.5 -220
DraftKings −1.5 +160 +1.5 -192
ESPN BET −1.5 +165 +1.5 -200
Fanatics −1.5 +160 +1.5 -200
FanDuel −1.5 +156 +1.5 -194
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +160 +1.5 -210
Caesars −1.5 +160 +1.5 -195
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 7 +110 7 -130
BetRivers 6.5 -137 6.5 +112
DraftKings 6.5 -142 6.5 +120
ESPN BET 6.5 -155 6.5 +125
Fanatics 6.5 -140 6.5 +115
FanDuel 6.5 -140 6.5 +112
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -145 6.5 +115
Caesars 6.5 -170 6.5 +125

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Pittsburgh PenguinsSan Jose Sharks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 57.2% 42.8%
Best book price incl. vig 58.0% 42.6%
Kalshi contract price 57.5% 42.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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