Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Brooklyn Nets at New Orleans Pelicans

All Brooklyn Nets predictions · All New Orleans Pelicans predictions

NBA · Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · 8:10 PM · Final: 145-111

The model's call
New Orleans Pelicans to win
Model confidence 56.4%
Books consensus 56.4%
Result Brooklyn Nets won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Brooklyn NetsNew Orleans Pelicans
BetMGM +118 -145
BetRivers +123 -148
DraftKings +120 -142
ESPN BET +120 -140
Fanatics +120 -145
FanDuel +118 -138
Hard Rock Bet +125 -145
Novig +122 -125
Caesars +121 -145

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Pelicans −2.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 8 books
opened Pelicans −4.5
Brooklyn Nets covered +2.5
Total · closing
O/U 228.5
priced 50.0% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened 230.5
Over 228.5 (256 scored)
Spread by book NetsPelicans
BetMGM +2.5 -110 −2.5 -110
BetRivers +2.5 -108 −2.5 -115
DraftKings +2.5 -111 −2.5 -109
ESPN BET +2.5 -110 −2.5 -110
Fanatics +2.5 -110 −2.5 -110
FanDuel +2.5 -110 −2.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet +2.5 -110 −2.5 -110
Caesars +2.5 -110 −2.5 -111
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 228.5 -110 228.5 -110
BetRivers 228.5 -114 228.5 -108
DraftKings 228.5 -115 228.5 -105
ESPN BET 228.5 -105 228.5 -115
Fanatics 228.5 -110 228.5 -110
FanDuel 228.5 -105 228.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet 227.5 -115 227.5 -105
Caesars 228.5 -108 228.5 -112

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Brooklyn NetsNew Orleans Pelicans
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 43.6% 56.4%
Best book price incl. vig 44.4% 55.6%
Kalshi contract price 43.5% 56.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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