Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

San Antonio Spurs at Chicago Bulls

All San Antonio Spurs predictions · All Chicago Bulls predictions

NBA · Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · 8:10 PM · Final: 124-119

The model's call
San Antonio Spurs to win
Model confidence 88.8%
Books consensus 88.8%
Result San Antonio Spurs won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book San Antonio SpursChicago Bulls
BetMGM -1200 +725
BetRivers -1430 +750
DraftKings -1180 +740
ESPN BET -1400 +750
Fanatics -1200 +750
FanDuel -1100 +700
Hard Rock Bet -1400 +800
Novig -953 +900
Caesars -1400 +800

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Spurs −15.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 4 books, 4 on another number
opened Spurs −14.5
Chicago Bulls covered +15.5
Total · closing
O/U 237.5
priced 50.0% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
opened 238.5
Over 237.5 (243 scored)
Spread by book SpursBulls
BetMGM −14.5 -118 +14.5 -102
BetRivers −15.5 -112 +15.5 -112
DraftKings −15.5 -110 +15.5 -110
ESPN BET −14.5 -115 +14.5 -105
Fanatics −15 -110 +15 -110
FanDuel −15.5 -102 +15.5 -120
Hard Rock Bet −15.5 -110 +15.5 -110
Caesars −15 -105 +15 -115
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 237.5 -110 237.5 -110
BetRivers 236.5 -109 236.5 -113
DraftKings 237.5 -110 237.5 -110
ESPN BET 238.5 -105 238.5 -115
Fanatics 237.5 -110 237.5 -110
FanDuel 236.5 -120 236.5 -102
Hard Rock Bet 236.5 -110 236.5 -110
Caesars 237.5 -105 237.5 -115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue San Antonio SpursChicago Bulls
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 88.8% 11.2%
Best book price incl. vig 90.5% 10.0%
Kalshi contract price 90.5% 9.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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