Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks

All Cleveland Cavaliers predictions · All New York Knicks predictions

NBA · Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · 7:13 PM · Final: 115-107

The model's call
New York Knicks to win
Model confidence 64.7%
Books consensus 64.7%
Result Cleveland Cavaliers won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Cleveland CavaliersNew York Knicks
BetMGM +170 -210
BetRivers +165 -200
DraftKings +180 -217
ESPN BET +190 -225
Fanatics +170 -205
FanDuel +166 -198
Hard Rock Bet +175 -220
Novig +190 -194
Caesars +170 -205

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Knicks −4.5
priced 51.1% to cover · 5 books, 3 on another number
Cleveland Cavaliers covered +4.5
Total · closing
O/U 221.5
priced 50.0% over · 3 books, 5 on another number
Over 221.5 (222 scored)
Spread by book CavaliersKnicks
BetMGM +4.5 +100 −4.5 -110
BetRivers +4.5 -108 −4.5 -114
DraftKings +4.5 -106 −4.5 -114
ESPN BET +5.5 -115 −5.5 -105
Fanatics +5 -110 −5 -110
FanDuel +4.5 -105 −4.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet +4.5 +100 −4.5 -115
Caesars +5 -110 −5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 221.5 -110 221.5 -110
BetRivers 220.5 -114 220.5 -108
DraftKings 220.5 -113 220.5 -107
ESPN BET 220.5 -115 220.5 -105
Fanatics 221 -110 221 -110
FanDuel 221.5 -110 221.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 221.5 -110 221.5 -110
Caesars 221 -115 221 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Cleveland CavaliersNew York Knicks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 35.3% 64.7%
Best book price incl. vig 34.5% 66.0%
Kalshi contract price 34.5% 65.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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