Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors

All Boston Celtics predictions · All Toronto Raptors predictions

NBA · Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · 7:13 PM · Final: 98-93

The model's call
Boston Celtics to win
Model confidence 63.9%
Books consensus 63.9%
Result Boston Celtics won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Boston CelticsToronto Raptors
BetMGM -200 +165
BetRivers -210 +170
DraftKings -197 +165
ESPN BET -195 +165
Fanatics -200 +165
FanDuel -198 +166
Hard Rock Bet -210 +170
Novig -182 +178
Caesars -190 +158

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Celtics −4.5
priced 51.1% to cover · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened Celtics −7.5
Boston Celtics covered −4.5
Total · closing
O/U 215.5
priced 50.0% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened 216.5
Under 215.5 (191 scored)
Spread by book CelticsRaptors
BetMGM −4.5 -115 +4.5 -105
BetRivers −4.5 -117 +4.5 -106
DraftKings −4.5 -115 +4.5 -105
ESPN BET −4.5 -115 +4.5 -105
Fanatics −5 -110 +5 -110
FanDuel −4.5 -115 +4.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet −5.5 -105 +5.5 -115
Caesars −4.5 -105 +4.5 -115
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 215.5 -110 215.5 -110
BetRivers 215.5 -112 215.5 -110
DraftKings 215.5 -110 215.5 -110
ESPN BET 215.5 -110 215.5 -110
Fanatics 215.5 -110 215.5 -110
FanDuel 216.5 -105 216.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet 215.5 -115 215.5 -105
Caesars 215.5 -110 215.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Boston CelticsToronto Raptors
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 63.9% 36.1%
Best book price incl. vig 64.5% 36.0%
Kalshi contract price 64.5% 35.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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