Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks

All Los Angeles Lakers predictions · All Milwaukee Bucks predictions

NBA · Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · 8:12 PM · Final: 123-112

The model's call
Los Angeles Lakers to win
Model confidence 86.8%
Books consensus 86.8%
Result Los Angeles Lakers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles LakersMilwaukee Bucks
BetMGM -1000 +625
BetRivers -835 +550
DraftKings -930 +620
ESPN BET -1000 +600
Fanatics -900 +600
FanDuel -1000 +660
Hard Rock Bet -1000 +650
Novig -770 +733
Caesars -1100 +700

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Lakers −14.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened Lakers −12.5
Milwaukee Bucks covered +14.5
Total · closing
O/U 230.5
priced 50.0% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened 231.5
Over 230.5 (235 scored)
Spread by book LakersBucks
BetMGM −14.5 -110 +14.5 -110
BetRivers −14.5 -109 +14.5 -113
DraftKings −14.5 -108 +14.5 -112
ESPN BET −13.5 -115 +13.5 -105
Fanatics −14.5 -105 +14.5 -115
FanDuel −14.5 -110 +14.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet −14.5 -110 +14.5 -110
Caesars −14.5 -115 +14.5 -105
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 230.5 -110 230.5 -110
BetRivers 230.5 -113 230.5 -109
DraftKings 230.5 -107 230.5 -113
ESPN BET 229.5 -115 229.5 -105
Fanatics 230.5 -110 230.5 -110
FanDuel 230.5 -108 230.5 -112
Hard Rock Bet 229.5 -115 229.5 -105
Caesars 231 -110 231 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles LakersMilwaukee Bucks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 86.8% 13.2%
Best book price incl. vig 88.5% 12.0%
Kalshi contract price 89.4% 10.6%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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