Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Orlando Magic at Utah Jazz

All Orlando Magic predictions · All Utah Jazz predictions

NBA · Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · 9:12 PM · Final: 123-108

The model's call
Orlando Magic to win
Model confidence 61.6%
Books consensus 61.6%
Result Orlando Magic won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Orlando MagicUtah Jazz
BetMGM -185 +150
BetRivers -180 +148
DraftKings -179 +150
ESPN BET -175 +150
Fanatics -180 +150
FanDuel -168 +142
Hard Rock Bet -180 +150
Novig -167 +163
Caesars -175 +148

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Magic −3.5
priced 51.1% to cover · 3 books, 5 on another number
opened Magic −4.5
Orlando Magic covered −3.5
Total · closing
O/U 215.5
priced 50.6% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened 217.5
Over 215.5 (231 scored)
Spread by book MagicJazz
BetMGM −3.5 -120 +3.5 +100
BetRivers −4.5 -107 +4.5 -115
DraftKings −4.5 -105 +4.5 -115
ESPN BET −4.5 -105 +4.5 -115
Fanatics −4 -110 +4 -110
FanDuel −3.5 -115 +3.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet −3.5 -110 +3.5 -110
Caesars −4 -110 +4 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 215.5 -118 215.5 -110
BetRivers 215.5 -114 215.5 -108
DraftKings 215.5 -110 215.5 -110
ESPN BET 215.5 -110 215.5 -110
Fanatics 216 -110 216 -110
FanDuel 215.5 -114 215.5 -106
Hard Rock Bet 215.5 -115 215.5 -105
Caesars 215.5 -110 215.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Orlando MagicUtah Jazz
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 61.6% 38.4%
Best book price incl. vig 62.5% 38.0%
Kalshi contract price 62.5% 37.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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