Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Montréal Canadiens at Boston Bruins

All Montréal Canadiens predictions · All Boston Bruins predictions

NHL · Thursday, November 12, 2026 · 7:00 PM

The model's call
Boston Bruins to win
Model confidence 53.2%
Books consensus 53.2%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Montréal CanadiensBoston Bruins
BetMGM +105 -125
BetRivers +102 -121
DraftKings +100 -120
ESPN BET +105 -125
Fanatics +105 -125
FanDuel +106 -128
Hard Rock Bet +105 -125
Novig +115 -117
Caesars +103 -121

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Bruins −1.5
priced 32.4% to cover · 8 books
Total
O/U 6.5
priced 46.6% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Spread by book CanadiensBruins
BetMGM +1.5 -225 −1.5 +185
BetRivers +1.5 -265 −1.5 +205
DraftKings +1.5 -238 −1.5 +195
ESPN BET +1.5 -250 −1.5 +185
Fanatics +1.5 -255 −1.5 +200
FanDuel +1.5 -245 −1.5 +194
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -250 −1.5 +180
Caesars +1.5 -240 −1.5 +197
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -120 6 +100
BetRivers 6.5 +105 6.5 -129
DraftKings 6.5 +105 6.5 -125
ESPN BET 6.5 +105 6.5 -125
Fanatics 6.5 +105 6.5 -125
FanDuel 6.5 +106 6.5 -130
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 +105 6.5 -130
Caesars 6 -124 6 +101

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Montréal CanadiensBoston Bruins
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 46.8% 53.2%
Best book price incl. vig 46.5% 53.9%
Kalshi contract price 46.0% 54.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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