Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators

All Colorado Avalanche predictions · All Ottawa Senators predictions

NHL · Thursday, November 12, 2026 · 7:00 PM

The model's call
Colorado Avalanche to win
Model confidence 52.2%
Books consensus 52.2%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Colorado AvalancheOttawa Senators
BetMGM -120 +100
BetRivers -120 +102
DraftKings -120 +100
ESPN BET -120 +100
Fanatics -120 +100
FanDuel -126 +105
Hard Rock Bet -120 +100
Novig -108 +106
Caesars -121 +102

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Avalanche −1.5
priced 32.1% to cover · 8 books
Total
O/U 6.5
priced 48.3% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
Spread by book AvalancheSenators
BetMGM −1.5 +190 +1.5 -235
BetRivers −1.5 +195 +1.5 -250
DraftKings −1.5 +210 +1.5 -258
ESPN BET −1.5 +190 +1.5 -265
Fanatics −1.5 +210 +1.5 -270
FanDuel −1.5 +198 +1.5 -250
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +180 +1.5 -250
Caesars −1.5 +205 +1.5 -250
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -130 6 +105
BetRivers 6.5 -106 6.5 -118
DraftKings 6.5 -102 6.5 -118
ESPN BET 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
Fanatics 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
FanDuel 6.5 -104 6.5 -118
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
Caesars 6.5 +100 6.5 -122

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Colorado AvalancheOttawa Senators
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 52.2% 47.8%
Best book price incl. vig 51.9% 48.5%
Kalshi contract price 52.5% 47.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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